Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Timberwolves NO @ MIN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

13-40  |  Road

119
FINAL
Fri, Feb 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

32-20  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PELICANS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Minnesota)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

27.4%

Timberwolves Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NO By 1-7 points

16.9%

NO By 8-14 points

6.8%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
119
NEW ORLEANS
125
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
112
NEW ORLEANS
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o237.0 Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.1% more
Minnesota: 12.8 vs New Orleans: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +17.1% more
Minnesota: 6.0 vs New Orleans: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +8.4% more
Minnesota: 44.8 vs New Orleans: 41.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Minnesota: 49.7% vs New Orleans: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 119.0 119
MIN Score 125.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.5 / 38.8 32.0 / 44.0
Assists 25.8 / 26.4 22.0 / 29.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.2 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 43.9 42.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 78.3 85.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 41.3 47.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.7 / 9.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 9.7 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NO
MIN
NO
ML
54% 63-53
62% 98-61
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 67-49
68% 107-51-1
54% 50-43
58% 48-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
75% 119-40
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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