INDIANA
PACERSIND
13-38 | Road
99
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
20-29 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
BUCKS
100%
PACERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
15.3%
IND By 8-14 points
25.3%
MIL By 1-7 points
4.8%
MIL By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
127
INDIANA
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Indiana
114
INDIANA
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.0
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.5% more
Indiana: 7.4
vs
Milwaukee: 5.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Indiana: 74.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 70.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 44.1
vs
Indiana: 40.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Milwaukee: 43.1%
vs
Indiana: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
127.0
99
MIL Score
112.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 39.9
30.0 / 28.0
Assists
29.7 / 31.6
26.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 50.2
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 74.7
67.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 40.6
48.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.6 / 7.4
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.3
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
64%
61-35
48%
47-50
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
57-40
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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