STETSON
HATTERSSTET
8-15 | Road
71
BELLARMINE
KNIGHTSBELL
9-13 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
HATTERS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Bellarmine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BELL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)
STET By 1-7 points
4.0%
STET By 8-14 points
0.8%
BELL By 1-7 points
13.7%
BELL By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Stetson
69
STETSON
Bellarmine
85
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
Stetson
67
STETSON
Bellarmine
72
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
STET @ BELL
71 - 92
Feb 24, 2025
BELL @ STET
67 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
STET @ BELL
81 - 76
Feb 7, 2024
STET @ BELL
84 - 77
Jan 12, 2023
STET @ BELL
80 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Bellarmine: 52.1%
vs
Stetson: 43.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Bellarmine: 82.8%
vs
Stetson: 76.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Bellarmine: 38.1%
vs
Stetson: 34.2%
Blocks (L5)
+44.5% more
Stetson: 1.7
vs
Bellarmine: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STET Score
69.0
71
BELL Score
85.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 34.2
56.0 / 39.0
Assists
15.4 / 17.6
21.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.0 / 1.7
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
52.1 / 43.1
61.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 76.2
86.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
28.0 / 35.4
26.0 / 24.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.2
7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.1
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
BELL
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
BELL
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
STET
BELL
STET
ML
72%
23-9
55%
18-15
94%
29-2
73%
24-9
ATS
72%
23-9
64%
21-12
94%
29-2
73%
24-9
TTL
50%
16-16
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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