Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cougars @ Blue Devils CHST @ CCSU

CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

3-19  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Detrick Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

BLUE DEVILSCCSU

11-10  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
COUGARS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Central Connecticut)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsCCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.0%

Blue Devils Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CCSU -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)

CHST By 1-7 points

0.0%

CHST By 8-14 points

0.0%

CCSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

CCSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
60
CHICAGO STATE
100
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
72
CHICAGO STATE
75
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 CCSU @ CHST 51 - 70
Feb 5, 2026 CHST @ CCSU 67 - 78
Feb 20, 2025 CCSU @ CHST 81 - 75
Jan 26, 2025 CHST @ CCSU 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +220.8% more
Central Connecticut: 3.4 vs Chicago State: 1.1
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Central Connecticut: 79.4% vs Chicago State: 65.5%
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
Central Connecticut: 10.6 vs Chicago State: 9.7
Assists (L5) +17.7% more
Chicago State: 13.5 vs Central Connecticut: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 60.0 67
CCSU Score 100.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 38.3 36.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.1 / 13.5 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.4 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 41.1 55.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 65.5 89.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 31.8 38.0 / 20.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.0 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 9.7 15.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
CCSU Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
CCSU Advantage
14-13-1 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
CHST
CCSU
CHST
ML
57% 17-13
75% 24-8
57% 17-13
73% 22-8
ATS
63% 19-11
69% 22-10
57% 17-13
73% 22-8
TTL
60% 18-12
44% 14-18
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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