GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
27-24 | Road
101
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
31-20 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
23.0%
GS By 8-14 points
27.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
10.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
105
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
95
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u214.0
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u214.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.9% more
Golden State: 5.4
vs
Phoenix: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+30.7% more
Golden State: 18.1
vs
Phoenix: 12.5
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Golden State: 29.8
vs
Phoenix: 24.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Phoenix: 42.2%
vs
Golden State: 36.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
105.0
101
PHX Score
95.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 36.8
37.0 / 36.0
Assists
24.3 / 29.8
22.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.5 / 5.4
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 46.0
46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 67.8
83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 39.0
37.0 / 45.0
Steals
10.8 / 11.1
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 18.1
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
57%
60-45
55%
95-79
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
101-73
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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