THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
8-15 | Road
64
SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
11-12 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Samford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)
CIT By 1-7 points
12.2%
CIT By 8-14 points
4.0%
SAM By 1-7 points
24.3%
SAM By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
The Citadel
68
THE CITADEL
Samford
77
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
The Citadel
70
THE CITADEL
Samford
85
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
SAM @ CIT
78 - 75
Feb 5, 2026
CIT @ SAM
64 - 78
Feb 1, 2025
SAM @ CIT
83 - 58
Jan 1, 2025
CIT @ SAM
56 - 86
Mar 2, 2024
CIT @ SAM
80 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Samford: 68.7%
vs
The Citadel: 61.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Samford: 45.5%
vs
The Citadel: 41.2%
Blocks (L5)
+47.2% more
The Citadel: 2.5
vs
Samford: 1.3
Steals (L5)
+35.6% more
The Citadel: 5.9
vs
Samford: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIT Score
68.0
64
SAM Score
77.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 35.2
45.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.1 / 15.6
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.3 / 2.5
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 41.2
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 61.4
69.0 / 47.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 36.6
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
3.8 / 5.9
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.8 / 9.1
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
SAM
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
CIT
SAM
CIT
ML
65%
20-11
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
ATS
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
64%
21-12
TTL
35%
11-20
53%
17-15
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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