EASTERN ILLINOIS
PANTHERSEIU
9-14 | Road
68
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
14-8 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
TIGERS
0%
PANTHERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
EIU By 1-7 points
21.6%
EIU By 8-14 points
10.7%
TNST By 1-7 points
27.2%
TNST By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Illinois
71
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Tennessee State
74
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Eastern Illinois
68
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Tennessee State
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
EIU @ TNST
68 - 77
Jan 10, 2026
TNST @ EIU
70 - 74
Feb 13, 2025
TNST @ EIU
66 - 49
Jan 18, 2025
EIU @ TNST
65 - 84
Feb 22, 2024
EIU @ TNST
73 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+145.6% more
Tennessee State: 5.0
vs
Eastern Illinois: 2.0
Rebounding (L5)
+21.0% more
Tennessee State: 37.1
vs
Eastern Illinois: 30.7
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Tennessee State: 13.1
vs
Eastern Illinois: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
Tennessee State: 47.8%
vs
Eastern Illinois: 38.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EIU Score
71.0
68
TNST Score
74.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 35.6
24.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.1 / 10.9
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 38.9
46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 72.6
78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 30.7
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.9 / 8.0
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 12.1
7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EIU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EIU
15-13-2
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -1.7
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
EIU
TNST
EIU
ML
52%
16-15
56%
18-14
63%
17-10
74%
23-8
ATS
68%
21-10
50%
16-16
64%
18-10
74%
23-8
TTL
52%
16-15
69%
22-10
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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