Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Fighting Hawks OMA @ UND

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

12-12  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

13-12  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
MAVERICKS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Omaha)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

75.8%

Fighting Hawks Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OMA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

OMA By 1-7 points

26.2%

OMA By 8-14 points

25.3%

UND By 1-7 points

15.3%

UND By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
93
OMAHA
86
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
71
OMAHA
76
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 OMA @ UND 73 - 76
Jan 8, 2026 UND @ OMA 79 - 90
Feb 6, 2025 UND @ OMA 77 - 80
Jan 2, 2025 OMA @ UND 95 - 85
Mar 10, 2024 OMA @ UND 73 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.3% more
Omaha: 10.4 vs North Dakota: 8.2
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
Omaha: 38.2 vs North Dakota: 32.8
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
Omaha: 3.1 vs North Dakota: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Omaha: 74.2% vs North Dakota: 70.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 93.0 73
UND Score 86.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.0 / 29.9 19.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.4 / 11.6 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 46.6 38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 74.2 66.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 38.2 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.7 / 5.6 3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 10.4 3.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
OMA
UND
OMA
ML
44% 15-19
79% 26-7
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
ATS
50% 17-17
76% 25-8
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
TTL
65% 22-12
73% 24-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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