LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-15 | Road
74
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
15-8 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
0%
TRITONS
100%
BEACH
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
LBSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
LBSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
UCSD By 1-7 points
16.9%
UCSD By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
92
LONG BEACH STATE
UC San Diego
86
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
70
LONG BEACH STATE
UC San Diego
75
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beach
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
LBSU @ UCSD
74 - 77
Dec 6, 2025
UCSD @ LBSU
80 - 74
Mar 6, 2025
LBSU @ UCSD
63 - 70
Jan 16, 2025
UCSD @ LBSU
80 - 54
Feb 3, 2024
UCSD @ LBSU
76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.6%
Long Beach State: 75.6%
vs
UC San Diego: 59.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Long Beach State: 44.8%
vs
UC San Diego: 38.1%
Blocks (L5)
+68.0% more
UC San Diego: 3.5
vs
Long Beach State: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+25.0% more
UC San Diego: 8.4
vs
Long Beach State: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
92.0
74
UCSD Score
86.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 30.7
38.0 / 37.0
Assists
13.4 / 12.4
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.1 / 44.8
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
59.0 / 75.6
72.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 33.8
42.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.8
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 12.5
18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
LBSU
UCSD
LBSU
ML
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
65%
20-11
ATS
50%
17-17
68%
21-10
65%
22-12
65%
20-11
TTL
62%
21-13
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
