CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
13-10 | Road
97
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
9-14 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
0%
MUSTANGS
100%
MATADORS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
CSUN By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUN By 8-14 points
25.3%
CP By 1-7 points
15.3%
CP By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
78
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Cal Poly
71
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
73
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Cal Poly
68
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Matadors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u177.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u177.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
CSUN @ CP
97 - 96
Jan 8, 2026
CP @ CSUN
90 - 95
Feb 15, 2025
CP @ CSUN
85 - 89
Dec 7, 2024
CSUN @ CP
102 - 91
Feb 8, 2024
CP @ CSUN
65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 3.6
vs
Cal Poly: 1.5
Rebounding (L5)
+25.3% more
Cal State Northridge: 44.5
vs
Cal Poly: 33.3
Assists (L5)
+18.5% more
Cal State Northridge: 20.1
vs
Cal Poly: 16.4
Steals (L5)
+31.1% more
Cal Poly: 7.6
vs
Cal State Northridge: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
78.0
97
CP Score
71.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 31.4
40.0 / 52.0
Assists
16.4 / 20.1
19.0 / 24.0
Blocks
1.5 / 3.6
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 45.9
52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 63.3
93.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 44.5
32.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.8
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 14.1
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
CSUN
CP
CSUN
ML
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
67%
22-11
ATS
64%
21-12
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
67%
22-11
TTL
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
