MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
10-11 | Road
90
UAB
BLAZERSUAB
14-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
BLAZERS
100%
TIGERS
--
BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
24.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
26.8%
UAB By 1-7 points
12.2%
UAB By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
93
MEMPHIS
UAB
84
UAB
Simulated Score
Memphis
73
MEMPHIS
UAB
78
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
UAB @ MEM
78 - 67
Feb 5, 2026
MEM @ UAB
90 - 80
Mar 16, 2025
UAB @ MEM
72 - 84
Mar 2, 2025
MEM @ UAB
88 - 81
Jan 26, 2025
UAB @ MEM
77 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+29.3% more
Memphis: 13.2
vs
UAB: 9.3
Steals (L5)
+19.3% more
Memphis: 9.3
vs
UAB: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.3%
Memphis: 78.3%
vs
UAB: 70.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
UAB: 45.3%
vs
Memphis: 42.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
93.0
90
UAB Score
84.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 28.6
24.0 / 40.0
Assists
11.5 / 12.4
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.1
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 42.5
38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 78.3
60.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 37.2
39.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.3
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 13.2
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
UAB
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
UAB
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
MEM
UAB
MEM
ML
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
41%
13-19
68%
21-10
ATS
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
41%
13-19
68%
21-10
TTL
69%
22-10
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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