MOREHEAD STATE
EAGLESMORE
12-11 | Road
70
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
13-10 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
EAGLES
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Morehead State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORE -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)
MORE By 1-7 points
2.2%
MORE By 8-14 points
8.0%
SEMO By 1-7 points
0.3%
SEMO By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Morehead State
86
MOREHEAD STATE
Southeast Missouri State
59
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
Morehead State
75
MOREHEAD STATE
Southeast Missouri State
68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Eagles (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
SEMO @ MORE
61 - 66
Feb 5, 2026
MORE @ SEMO
70 - 82
Jan 10, 2026
SEMO @ MORE
69 - 71
Feb 6, 2025
SEMO @ MORE
80 - 51
Jan 11, 2025
MORE @ SEMO
67 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.0% more
Morehead State: 3.7
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Morehead State: 74.5%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 68.3%
Assists (L5)
+35.5% more
Southeast Missouri State: 16.1
vs
Morehead State: 11.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.8% more
Southeast Missouri State: 11.3
vs
Morehead State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MORE Score
86.0
70
SEMO Score
59.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 34.1
45.0 / 36.0
Assists
16.1 / 11.9
11.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 45.3
51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 74.5
68.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 34.1
30.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.2
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
MORE
SEMO
MORE
ML
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
50%
15-15
68%
21-10
ATS
67%
22-11
59%
19-13
50%
15-15
68%
21-10
TTL
58%
19-14
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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