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DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

10-14  |  Road

78
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Scheels Center
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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

19-5  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
BISON
100%
PIONEERS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Denver)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

100.0%

Bison Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

0.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

NDSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NDSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
105
DENVER
54
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
70
DENVER
75
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 DEN @ NDSU 78 - 71
Jan 22, 2026 NDSU @ DEN 82 - 77
Feb 15, 2025 DEN @ NDSU 84 - 89
Jan 11, 2025 NDSU @ DEN 69 - 50
Feb 17, 2024 NDSU @ DEN 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +143.7% more
North Dakota State: 3.7 vs Denver: 1.5
Steals (L5) +126.6% more
North Dakota State: 8.4 vs Denver: 3.7
Assists (L5) +47.5% more
North Dakota State: 15.1 vs Denver: 10.2
Turnovers (L5) +26.9% more
North Dakota State: 10.8 vs Denver: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 105.0 78
NDSU Score 54.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.0 / 37.9 30.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.1 / 10.2 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.4 / 45.0 40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 75.6 68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 36.7 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.4 / 3.7 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 8.5 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
NDSU
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
DEN
NDSU
DEN
ML
49% 17-18
56% 18-14
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
ATS
54% 19-16
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
TTL
43% 15-20
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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