FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
PANTHERSFIU
10-11 | Road
88
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
11-10 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
PANTHERS
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
FIU By 1-7 points
27.2%
FIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
MTSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
MTSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida International
95
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Middle Tennessee
92
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Florida International
68
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Middle Tennessee
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
MTSU @ FIU
73 - 67
Feb 4, 2026
FIU @ MTSU
88 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
FIU @ MTSU
56 - 78
Jan 2, 2025
MTSU @ FIU
73 - 69
Feb 10, 2024
MTSU @ FIU
68 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+57.5% more
Florida International: 9.6
vs
Middle Tennessee: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
Florida International: 13.6
vs
Middle Tennessee: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+11.2% more
Florida International: 3.9
vs
Middle Tennessee: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Florida International: 68.7%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 60.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FIU Score
95.0
88
MTSU Score
92.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 32.9
30.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.5 / 10.3
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.9
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 43.9
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
60.9 / 68.7
70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 36.4
40.0 / 45.0
Steals
4.1 / 9.6
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.6
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +1.2
MTSU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +1.2
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.8
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
FIU
MTSU
FIU
ML
56%
18-14
58%
18-13
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
ATS
75%
24-8
52%
16-15
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
TTL
53%
17-15
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
