MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
31-20 | Road
128
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
30-21 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
RAPTORS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIN By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
8.0%
TOR By 1-7 points
27.2%
TOR By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Toronto
113
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
109
MINNESOTA
Toronto
125
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.0
Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
TOR @ MIN
107 - 115
Feb 4, 2026
MIN @ TOR
128 - 126
Nov 21, 2024
MIN @ TOR
105 - 110
Oct 26, 2024
TOR @ MIN
101 - 112
Apr 3, 2024
TOR @ MIN
85 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.2% more
Toronto: 16.2
vs
Minnesota: 14.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.6%
Toronto: 79.8%
vs
Minnesota: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.2%
Minnesota: 41.7%
vs
Toronto: 31.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Minnesota: 49.1%
vs
Toronto: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
108.0
128
TOR Score
113.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 41.7
48.0 / 41.0
Assists
26.5 / 25.7
31.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.9 / 6.6
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 49.1
53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 74.2
71.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
42.5 / 44.1
41.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.3 / 9.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 14.2
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
55%
57-47
54%
63-53
55%
48-39
54%
50-43
ATS
61%
62-40-2
58%
67-49
55%
48-39
54%
50-43
TTL
60%
62-42
63%
72-43-1
100%
87-0
100%
93-0
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