TROY
TROJANSTROY
15-8 | Road
74
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
9-14 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
TROJANS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Georgia State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GAST -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)
TROY By 1-7 points
0.0%
TROY By 8-14 points
0.0%
GAST By 1-7 points
0.0%
GAST By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
45
TROY
Georgia State
86
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Troy
72
TROY
Georgia State
75
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
TROY @ GAST
74 - 63
Dec 21, 2024
GAST @ TROY
57 - 77
Feb 3, 2024
TROY @ GAST
78 - 74
Jan 12, 2023
TROY @ GAST
65 - 53
Feb 3, 2022
TROY @ GAST
67 - 63
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Georgia State: 33.8%
vs
Troy: 27.2%
Steals (L5)
+21.3% more
Troy: 7.8
vs
Georgia State: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Troy: 81.9%
vs
Georgia State: 79.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Troy: 40.0%
vs
Georgia State: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
45.0
74
GAST Score
86.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 27.2
33.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.5 / 13.3
14.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
37.4 / 40.0
39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
79.1 / 81.9
68.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 34.8
34.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.8
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.4
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
TROY
GAST
TROY
ML
56%
18-14
59%
20-14
71%
22-9
61%
20-13
ATS
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
71%
22-9
61%
20-13
TTL
59%
19-13
56%
19-15
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
