Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Paladins @ Buccaneers FUR @ ETSU

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

16-7  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

16-7  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
PALADINS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
PALADINS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Furman)
PaladinsFUR (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Paladins Cover

98.9%

Buccaneers Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FUR -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

FUR By 1-7 points

4.8%

FUR By 8-14 points

13.7%

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
95
FURMAN
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
FURMAN
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Paladins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Paladins (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 76 - 61
Feb 18, 2026 ETSU @ FUR 78 - 69
Feb 4, 2026 FUR @ ETSU 71 - 75
Feb 2, 2025 FUR @ ETSU 69 - 72
Jan 15, 2025 ETSU @ FUR 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.1% more
Furman: 11.3 vs East Tennessee State: 7.0
Assists (L5) +18.9% more
Furman: 16.8 vs East Tennessee State: 13.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Furman: 38.7% vs East Tennessee State: 36.0%
Steals (L5) +110.7% more
East Tennessee State: 8.1 vs Furman: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FUR Score 95.0 71
ETSU Score 72.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 38.7 41.0 / 27.0
Assists 13.6 / 16.8 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 50.7 43.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 77.3 73.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 34.0 29.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 3.8 13.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 7.0 / 11.3 9.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
FUR
ETSU
FUR
ML
42% 14-19
71% 25-10
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
ATS
58% 19-14
63% 22-13
70% 23-10
62% 21-13
TTL
45% 15-18
57% 20-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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