Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Dukes UL @ JMU

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

7-16  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

11-12  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (James Madison)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

0.6%

Dukes Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

UL By 1-7 points

0.5%

UL By 8-14 points

0.1%

JMU By 1-7 points

3.3%

JMU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
57
LOUISIANA
82
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
73
LOUISIANA
82
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UL @ JMU 72 - 87
Feb 4, 2026 UL @ JMU 64 - 61
Jan 4, 2024 JMU @ UL 68 - 61
Feb 18, 2023 UL @ JMU 68 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.5% more
James Madison: 12.2 vs Louisiana: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +24.9% more
James Madison: 36.7 vs Louisiana: 29.4
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
Louisiana: 5.8 vs James Madison: 4.8
Assists (L5) +13.5% more
Louisiana: 12.8 vs James Madison: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 57.0 64
JMU Score 82.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 42.1 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 11.1 / 12.8 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.5 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 45.3 48.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 73.3 42.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 29.4 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.8 / 5.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 9.5 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
UL
JMU
UL
ML
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
ATS
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
TTL
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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