Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Wolves @ Chanticleers ARST @ CCU

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

13-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:00 PM ET
The HTC Center
View Odds Details →

COASTAL CAROLINA

CHANTICLEERSCCU

14-10  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
📊
CHANTICLEERS
100%
RED WOLVES --
CHANTICLEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Arkansas State)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 ChanticleersCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

98.6%

Chanticleers Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARST -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-7 points

5.8%

ARST By 8-14 points

15.3%

CCU By 1-7 points

1.1%

CCU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
86
ARKANSAS STATE
64
COASTAL CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
ARKANSAS STATE
72
COASTAL CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chanticleers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Chanticleers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 ARST @ CCU 70 - 66
Dec 21, 2024 CCU @ ARST 67 - 97
Feb 28, 2024 ARST @ CCU 71 - 60
Feb 28, 2023 ARST @ CCU 86 - 69
Feb 4, 2023 CCU @ ARST 57 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +56.0% more
Arkansas State: 7.5 vs Coastal Carolina: 3.3
Assists (L5) +18.8% more
Arkansas State: 15.4 vs Coastal Carolina: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
Arkansas State: 13.8 vs Coastal Carolina: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Arkansas State: 70.9% vs Coastal Carolina: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 86.0 70
CCU Score 64.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 30.2 33.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.5 / 15.4 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 41.0 39.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 70.9 65.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 39.7 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 3.3 / 7.5 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.8 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
CCU
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
CCU Advantage
18-12-1 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
CCU
17-13-1
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
ARST
CCU
ARST
ML
41% 13-19
48% 15-16
55% 17-14
53% 16-14
ATS
38% 12-20
58% 18-13
55% 17-14
53% 16-14
TTL
75% 24-8
61% 19-12
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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