Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Bulldogs NMSU @ LT

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

10-11  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

12-9  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
AGGIES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

99.7%

Bulldogs Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

LT By 1-7 points

0.3%

LT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
94
NEW MEXICO STATE
67
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
75
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 NMSU @ LT 72 - 63
Mar 6, 2025 NMSU @ LT 67 - 55
Jan 4, 2025 LT @ NMSU 48 - 78
Feb 24, 2024 LT @ NMSU 67 - 58
Jan 27, 2024 NMSU @ LT 53 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.8% more
New Mexico State: 5.8 vs Louisiana Tech: 4.7
Assists (L5) +16.7% more
New Mexico State: 11.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
New Mexico State: 74.6% vs Louisiana Tech: 70.0%
Blocks (L5) +89.8% more
Louisiana Tech: 4.8 vs New Mexico State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 94.0 72
LT Score 67.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 27.9 26.0 / 40.0
Assists 9.5 / 11.4 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 36.4 34.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 74.6 56.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 34.4 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.7 / 5.8 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 10.5 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
NMSU
LT
NMSU
ML
58% 19-14
61% 19-12
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
ATS
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
TTL
61% 20-13
45% 14-17
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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