LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
18-3 | Road
75
DELAWARE
BLUE HENSDEL
6-15 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
BLUE HENS
0%
FLAMES
--
BLUE HENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Delaware)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)
LIB By 1-7 points
4.0%
LIB By 8-14 points
0.8%
DEL By 1-7 points
13.7%
DEL By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Liberty
60
LIBERTY
Delaware
76
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
Liberty
68
LIBERTY
Delaware
75
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Hens
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Hens
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Hens (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Blue Hens (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
LIB @ DEL
75 - 69
Jan 24, 2026
DEL @ LIB
51 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+71.9% more
Delaware: 11.8
vs
Liberty: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+21.4% more
Delaware: 31.8
vs
Liberty: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Delaware: 82.4%
vs
Liberty: 70.8%
Assists (L5)
+44.4% more
Liberty: 15.9
vs
Delaware: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LIB Score
60.0
75
DEL Score
76.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 44.3
38.0 / 41.0
Assists
8.8 / 15.9
13.0 / 21.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 54.2
51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 70.8
89.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 26.2
23.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.5
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 6.9
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DEL
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DEL
Advantage
15-14-1
(51.7%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
LIB
DEL
LIB
ML
45%
14-17
50%
17-17
52%
16-15
53%
18-16
ATS
61%
19-12
62%
21-13
52%
16-15
53%
18-16
TTL
65%
20-11
41%
14-20
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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