NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
7-13 | Road
60
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
12-10 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
BEARS
100%
LIONS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (North Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
UNA By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNA By 8-14 points
23.0%
CARK By 1-7 points
3.3%
CARK By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
North Alabama
80
NORTH ALABAMA
Central Arkansas
63
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
North Alabama
72
NORTH ALABAMA
Central Arkansas
75
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
CARK @ UNA
72 - 65
Feb 4, 2026
UNA @ CARK
60 - 81
Feb 24, 2025
UNA @ CARK
93 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
CARK @ UNA
65 - 94
Mar 1, 2024
UNA @ CARK
82 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.0% more
North Alabama: 4.5
vs
Central Arkansas: 2.0
Turnovers (L5)
+29.2% more
North Alabama: 11.3
vs
Central Arkansas: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.9%
North Alabama: 69.8%
vs
Central Arkansas: 67.9%
Assists (L5)
+78.9% more
Central Arkansas: 19.3
vs
North Alabama: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNA Score
80.0
60
CARK Score
63.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 27.2
42.0 / 35.0
Assists
19.3 / 10.8
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.0 / 4.5
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 45.2
48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 69.8
78.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 30.4
39.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.1
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 11.3
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
UNA
CARK
UNA
ML
67%
22-11
43%
13-17
70%
23-10
57%
16-12
ATS
61%
20-13
60%
18-12
70%
23-10
57%
16-12
TTL
50%
16-16-1
63%
19-11
100%
33-0
100%
28-0
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