Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Fighting Illini NU @ ILL

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

10-12  |  Road

44
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 9:00 PM ET
State Farm Center
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

19-3  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
WILDCATS --
FIGHTING ILLINI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Illinois)
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 Fighting IlliniILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

Fighting Illini Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

NU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ILL By 1-7 points

0.1%

ILL By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
NORTHWESTERN
100
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
72
NORTHWESTERN
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Illini Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 NU @ ILL 44 - 84
Jan 14, 2026 ILL @ NU 79 - 68
Jan 26, 2025 NU @ ILL 74 - 83
Dec 6, 2024 ILL @ NU 66 - 70
Jan 24, 2024 ILL @ NU 91 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.6% more
Illinois: 38.3 vs Northwestern: 32.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Illinois: 76.0% vs Northwestern: 74.4%
Steals (L5) +24.1% more
Northwestern: 4.0 vs Illinois: 3.1
Assists (L5) +20.9% more
Northwestern: 17.5 vs Illinois: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 62.0 44
ILL Score 100.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 33.7 45.0 / 16.0
Assists 13.9 / 17.5 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 44.7 48.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 74.4 79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 32.0 50.0 / 23.0
Steals 3.1 / 4.0 1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 9.2 11.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
NU
ILL
NU
ML
65% 24-13
47% 16-18
57% 20-15
68% 23-11
ATS
70% 26-11
50% 17-17
57% 20-15
68% 23-11
TTL
57% 21-16
53% 18-16
100% 35-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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