TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
26-21-9 | Road
5
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
28-20-8 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Walman
#96 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.00 | 0.944 | -- |
| Jake Walman | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.944
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
OILERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
TOR By 1 goal
0.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
0.3%
EDM By 1 goal
6.6%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
1
TORONTO
Edmonton
5
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
TOR @ EDM
5 - 2
Dec 13, 2025
EDM @ TOR
6 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
TOR @ EDM
4 - 3
Nov 16, 2024
EDM @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 23, 2024
EDM @ TOR
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.9% more
Edmonton: 35.7
vs
Toronto: 29.0
Takeaways (L5)
+24.2% more
Toronto: 5.7
vs
Edmonton: 4.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.0% more
Toronto: 16.6
vs
Edmonton: 13.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.4%
Toronto: 55.9%
vs
Edmonton: 53.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
1.0
5
EDM Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.1 / 16.6
7.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
53.5 / 55.9
46.3 / 53.7
Hits
19.8 / 19.2
19.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
9.3 / 8.7
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
35.7 / 29.0
36.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 5.7
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
TOR
EDM
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
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