WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
28-22-7 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
24-20-10 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Rasmus Sandin
#38 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Sandin | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 2.00 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
FLYERS
100%
CAPITALS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025
PHI @ WSH
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.7% more
Washington: 18.1
vs
Philadelphia: 16.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.1% more
Washington: 28.6
vs
Philadelphia: 25.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Washington: 51.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 47.5%
Power Play % (L5)
+22.9%
Philadelphia: 29.2%
vs
Washington: 6.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
2
PHI Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 18.1
25.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
47.5 / 51.2
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
27.5 / 22.8
21.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
29.2 / 6.4
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 28.6
22.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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