Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Braves VAL @ BRAD

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

11-11  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

15-8  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
BEACONS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Bradley)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

46.0%

Braves Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

VAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

VAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

BRAD By 1-7 points

26.2%

BRAD By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
VALPARAISO
89
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
63
VALPARAISO
78
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 84 - 90
Feb 18, 2026 BRAD @ VAL 72 - 79
Feb 3, 2026 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 72
Mar 8, 2025 VAL @ BRAD 65 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 BRAD @ VAL 76 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +27.8% more
Bradley: 13.6 vs Valparaiso: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Bradley: 41.1% vs Valparaiso: 31.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Bradley: 73.9% vs Valparaiso: 69.6%
Blocks (L5) +64.7% more
Valparaiso: 3.4 vs Bradley: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 88.0 65
BRAD Score 89.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.1 / 31.9 33.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.6 / 10.6 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.4 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 43.4 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 69.6 69.0 / 40.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 36.6 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 9.5 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
VAL
BRAD
VAL
ML
65% 22-12
48% 16-17
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
ATS
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
TTL
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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