Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sycamores @ Purple Aces INST @ EVAN

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

9-14  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

5-17  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
0%
📊
PURPLE ACES
100%
SYCAMORES --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indiana State)
SycamoresINST (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sycamores Cover

65.5%

Purple Aces Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around INST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

INST By 1-7 points

27.4%

INST By 8-14 points

21.6%

EVAN By 1-7 points

20.1%

EVAN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
INDIANA STATE
54
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
70
INDIANA STATE
80
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sycamores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sycamores (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 INST @ EVAN 84 - 63
Jan 10, 2026 EVAN @ INST 72 - 69
Feb 19, 2025 EVAN @ INST 79 - 74
Jan 4, 2025 INST @ EVAN 66 - 62
Feb 28, 2024 INST @ EVAN 85 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.2% more
Indiana State: 4.6 vs Evansville: 2.1
Assists (L5) +27.5% more
Indiana State: 17.5 vs Evansville: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Indiana State: 15.3 vs Evansville: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
Indiana State: 34.5 vs Evansville: 28.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 58.0 84
EVAN Score 54.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 29.9 27.0 / 48.0
Assists 12.7 / 17.5 9.0 / 28.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 47.8 43.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 58.9 65.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 34.5 28.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.8 / 4.2 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 15.3 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST Advantage
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
INST
EVAN
INST
ML
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
ATS
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
TTL
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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