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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

16-6  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

15-6  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
📊
MUSTANGS
100%
WOLFPACK --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (NC State)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

98.6%

Mustangs Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

NCSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

SMU By 1-7 points

1.1%

SMU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
93
NC STATE
71
SMU
Simulated Score
72
NC STATE
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 NCSU @ SMU 84 - 83
Jan 25, 2025 SMU @ NCSU 63 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.8% more
NC State: 17.5 vs SMU: 13.7
Steals (L5) +14.8% more
NC State: 8.1 vs SMU: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
NC State: 42.4% vs SMU: 36.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
NC State: 78.7% vs SMU: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 93.0 84
SMU Score 71.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 42.4 55.0 / 44.0
Assists 13.7 / 17.5 17.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 49.4 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 78.7 58.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 34.5 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.1 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 8.8 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
NCSU
SMU
NCSU
ML
59% 20-14
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
ATS
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
TTL
56% 19-15
71% 24-10
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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