INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
15-7 | Road
75
USC
TROJANSUSC
16-6 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
TROJANS
100%
HOOSIERS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
IU By 1-7 points
24.3%
IU By 8-14 points
26.8%
USC By 1-7 points
12.2%
USC By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
87
INDIANA
USC
78
USC
Simulated Score
Indiana
73
INDIANA
USC
78
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
IU @ USC
75 - 81
Jan 8, 2025
USC @ IU
69 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.5% more
Indiana: 17.1
vs
USC: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.1%
Indiana: 81.9%
vs
USC: 68.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Indiana: 34.4%
vs
USC: 28.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+36.5% more
USC: 12.8
vs
Indiana: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
87.0
75
USC Score
78.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 34.4
35.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.1 / 17.1
14.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.2
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 44.1
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
68.8 / 81.9
81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 33.7
40.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.4 / 4.7
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 9.4
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
IU
USC
IU
ML
52%
16-15
66%
21-11
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
ATS
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
58%
18-13
71%
22-9
TTL
68%
21-10
56%
18-14
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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