MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
31-19 | Road
128
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-29 | Home
137
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
5.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
129
MINNESOTA
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.5
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MEM @ MIN
110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026
MIN @ MEM
128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026
MIN @ MEM
131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025
MEM @ MIN
116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025
MIN @ MEM
141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.2% more
Minnesota: 11.5
vs
Memphis: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+20.9% more
Minnesota: 6.4
vs
Memphis: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.3%
Minnesota: 43.1%
vs
Memphis: 29.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Minnesota: 49.1%
vs
Memphis: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
129.0
128
MEM Score
115.0
137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 43.1
46.0 / 39.0
Assists
28.0 / 26.5
31.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.0 / 6.4
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 49.1
50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.7 / 72.8
86.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 46.2
45.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.8 / 11.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 16.8
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIN
MEM
MIN
ML
57%
59-44
54%
63-53
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
67-49
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
TTL
70%
71-31-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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