SOUTHERN
JAGUARSSOU
8-13 | Road
96
JACKSON STATE
TIGERSJKST
6-15 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
TIGERS
100%
JAGUARS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Southern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SOU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)
SOU By 1-7 points
2.7%
SOU By 8-14 points
9.3%
JKST By 1-7 points
0.4%
JKST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern
98
SOUTHERN
Jackson State
72
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
Southern
68
SOUTHERN
Jackson State
72
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jaguars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jaguars (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
SOU @ JKST
96 - 91
Feb 3, 2025
JKST @ SOU
89 - 91
Feb 5, 2024
SOU @ JKST
72 - 63
Jan 30, 2023
JKST @ SOU
62 - 73
Jan 31, 2022
SOU @ JKST
75 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+52.2% more
Southern: 9.0
vs
Jackson State: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Southern: 12.6
vs
Jackson State: 9.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Southern: 44.8%
vs
Jackson State: 39.4%
Blocks (L5)
+11.0% more
Jackson State: 4.4
vs
Southern: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SOU Score
98.0
96
JKST Score
72.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 24.9
42.0 / 38.0
Assists
9.8 / 12.6
12.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.9
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 44.8
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 72.7
77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 33.7
39.0 / 45.0
Steals
4.3 / 9.0
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.5
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
JKST
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -13.5
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.6
JKST
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -13.5
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
SOU
JKST
SOU
ML
77%
24-7
67%
22-11
73%
19-7
70%
21-9
ATS
77%
24-7
64%
21-12
73%
19-7
70%
21-9
TTL
58%
18-13
42%
14-19
100%
26-0
100%
30-0
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