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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

25-21-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

22-26-6  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Dustin Wolf None-None 3.07 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.07
-- Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Calgary)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

2.3%

Flames Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

TOR By 1 goal

0.9%

TOR By 2-3 goals

0.3%

CGY By 1 goal

6.6%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TORONTO
5
CALGARY
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 TOR @ CGY 4 - 2
Oct 28, 2025 CGY @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 17, 2025 CGY @ TOR 2 - 6
Feb 4, 2025 TOR @ CGY 6 - 3
Jan 18, 2024 TOR @ CGY 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +46.0% more
Calgary: 16.6 vs Toronto: 11.4
Power Play % (L5) +14.2%
Calgary: 27.2% vs Toronto: 13.0%
Takeaways (L5) +8.4% more
Toronto: 5.0 vs Calgary: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 1.0 4
CGY Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.6 / 11.4 17.0 / 27.0
Faceoff % 52.1 / 52.8 37.8 / 62.2
Hits 20.9 / 21.8 20.0 / 14.0
Power Play % 2721.0 / 1304.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.8 / 32.6 30.0 / 22.0
Takeaways 4.6 / 5.0 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
53%MONEY47%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
TOR
CGY
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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