SYRACUSE
ORANGESYR
13-9 | Road
77
NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
17-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
ORANGE
100%
TAR HEELS
0%
ORANGE
--
TAR HEELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
193.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
SYR By 1-7 points
12.2%
SYR By 8-14 points
4.0%
UNC By 1-7 points
24.3%
UNC By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Syracuse
92
SYRACUSE
North Carolina
101
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Syracuse
72
SYRACUSE
North Carolina
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o158.5
Win
Proj Total: 193.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UNC @ SYR
77 - 64
Feb 2, 2026
SYR @ UNC
77 - 87
Feb 15, 2025
UNC @ SYR
88 - 82
Feb 13, 2024
UNC @ SYR
79 - 86
Jan 13, 2024
SYR @ UNC
67 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
North Carolina: 18.1
vs
Syracuse: 15.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.8%
North Carolina: 75.1%
vs
Syracuse: 63.2%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.4% more
North Carolina: 36.2
vs
Syracuse: 32.5
Turnovers (L5)
+37.6% more
Syracuse: 9.6
vs
North Carolina: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SYR Score
92.0
77
UNC Score
101.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 36.3
44.0 / 33.0
Assists
18.1 / 15.2
16.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.0
1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 48.9
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 63.2
71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 32.5
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.0 / 7.5
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
6.0 / 9.6
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.6
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.6
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
SYR
UNC
SYR
ML
76%
25-8
78%
25-7
69%
22-10
69%
22-10
ATS
73%
24-9
69%
22-10
69%
22-10
69%
22-10
TTL
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Kansas Basketball Secures Melvin Council Jr. for Unprecedented S…