NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
14-9 | Road
65
OAKLAND
GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK
13-10 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
NORSE
--
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
NKU By 1-7 points
25.3%
NKU By 8-14 points
26.2%
OAK By 1-7 points
13.7%
OAK By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
89
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Oakland
81
OAKLAND
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Oakland
78
OAKLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Norse
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Norse (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o166.5
Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
NKU @ OAK
85 - 84
Feb 1, 2026
NKU @ OAK
65 - 76
Dec 17, 2025
OAK @ NKU
82 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
NKU @ OAK
84 - 75
Jan 11, 2025
OAK @ NKU
68 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 10.5
vs
Oakland: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+35.4% more
Oakland: 4.4
vs
Northern Kentucky: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Oakland: 16.1
vs
Northern Kentucky: 13.1
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
Oakland: 37.7
vs
Northern Kentucky: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
89.0
65
OAK Score
81.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 29.0
28.0 / 22.0
Assists
16.1 / 13.1
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.3
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 46.4
42.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 69.7
71.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 32.6
49.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 10.5
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
OAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
OAK
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OAK
NKU
OAK
NKU
ML
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
ATS
50%
16-16
56%
19-15
59%
19-13
65%
22-12
TTL
62%
20-12
68%
23-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
