MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
11-11 | Road
74
CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
2-19 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
COUGARS
100%
LAKERS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
MERC By 1-7 points
21.6%
MERC By 8-14 points
27.4%
CHST By 1-7 points
9.3%
CHST By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
66
MERCYHURST
Chicago State
55
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
67
MERCYHURST
Chicago State
78
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u129.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
MERC @ CHST
74 - 78
Jan 25, 2026
CHST @ MERC
59 - 61
Feb 27, 2025
CHST @ MERC
68 - 90
Feb 6, 2025
MERC @ CHST
78 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.8% more
Mercyhurst: 3.1
vs
Chicago State: 0.6
Assists (L5)
+28.5% more
Mercyhurst: 15.7
vs
Chicago State: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.0%
Mercyhurst: 82.7%
vs
Chicago State: 66.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.9% more
Mercyhurst: 33.0
vs
Chicago State: 29.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
66.0
74
CHST Score
55.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 39.8
43.0 / 27.0
Assists
11.2 / 15.7
18.0 / 20.0
Blocks
0.6 / 3.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.1 / 45.3
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
66.7 / 82.7
63.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 33.0
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.8
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 7.8
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CHST
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
MERC
CHST
MERC
ML
75%
24-8
59%
20-14
73%
22-8
79%
26-7
ATS
69%
22-10
62%
21-13
73%
22-8
79%
26-7
TTL
44%
14-18
53%
18-16
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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