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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

30-19  |  Road

131
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 8:00 PM ET
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View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

18-28  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

91.9%

Grizzlies Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

16.9%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

5.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
129
MINNESOTA
115
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
105
MINNESOTA
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.0 Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 MEM @ MIN 110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026 MIN @ MEM 128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026 MIN @ MEM 131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025 MEM @ MIN 116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025 MIN @ MEM 141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.2% more
Minnesota: 7.0 vs Memphis: 5.5
Steals (L5) +19.3% more
Minnesota: 11.3 vs Memphis: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Minnesota: 40.1% vs Memphis: 31.2%
Rebounding (L5) +8.3% more
Minnesota: 46.8 vs Memphis: 42.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 129.0 131
MEM Score 115.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 40.1 27.0 / 49.0
Assists 27.4 / 25.7 29.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.5 / 7.0 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.1 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 84.5 / 69.7 67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 46.8 43.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.1 / 11.3 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 17.7 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIN
MEM
MIN
ML
57% 59-44
54% 63-53
50% 41-41
54% 50-43
ATS
63% 65-38
58% 67-49
50% 41-41
54% 50-43
TTL
70% 71-31-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 82-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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