Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Eagles UNCA @ WIN

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

10-12  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Winthrop Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

15-8  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
BULLDOGS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNC Asheville)
BulldogsUNCA (-3.5) 0 EaglesWIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

94.5%

Eagles Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

UNCA By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNCA By 8-14 points

24.3%

WIN By 1-7 points

4.0%

WIN By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
89
UNC ASHEVILLE
73
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
72
UNC ASHEVILLE
78
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 UNCA @ WIN 71 - 84
Jan 17, 2026 WIN @ UNCA 69 - 67
Mar 8, 2025 WIN @ UNCA 86 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 UNCA @ WIN 90 - 103
Jan 18, 2025 WIN @ UNCA 84 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.4% more
UNC Asheville: 4.3 vs Winthrop: 2.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
UNC Asheville: 40.8% vs Winthrop: 33.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
UNC Asheville: 44.2% vs Winthrop: 42.6%
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Winthrop: 14.7 vs UNC Asheville: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score 89.0 71
WIN Score 73.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 40.8 42.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.7 / 12.3 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 44.2 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 69.3 89.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 36.7 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.2 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.8 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WIN Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
UNCA
WIN
UNCA
ML
70% 23-10
53% 16-14
79% 26-7
63% 19-11
ATS
79% 26-7
57% 17-13
79% 26-7
63% 19-11
TTL
58% 19-14
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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