PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
15-8 | Road
82
SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
13-10 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
DONS
100%
TIGERS
--
DONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Pacific)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)
PAC By 1-7 points
27.2%
PAC By 8-14 points
23.0%
SF By 1-7 points
18.6%
SF By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pacific
81
PACIFIC
San Francisco
76
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Pacific
65
PACIFIC
San Francisco
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Dons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
SF @ PAC
72 - 61
Jan 31, 2026
PAC @ SF
82 - 87
Feb 20, 2025
PAC @ SF
58 - 71
Jan 2, 2025
SF @ PAC
89 - 81
Feb 3, 2024
PAC @ SF
73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.2% more
Pacific: 7.1
vs
San Francisco: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+12.9% more
Pacific: 16.5
vs
San Francisco: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Pacific: 48.3%
vs
San Francisco: 44.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Pacific: 67.4%
vs
San Francisco: 64.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PAC Score
81.0
82
SF Score
76.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 35.7
36.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.3 / 16.5
15.0 / 20.0
Blocks
1.6 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 48.3
49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
64.4 / 67.4
73.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 37.2
32.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.1
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.0
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
SF
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PAC
SF
PAC
ML
39%
13-20
45%
15-18
64%
21-12
80%
24-6
ATS
42%
14-19
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
80%
24-6
TTL
73%
24-9
58%
19-14
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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