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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

16-6  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Curb Event Center Arena
View Odds Details →

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

19-3  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
BRUINS
100%
RACERS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Murray State)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 BruinsBEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

84.1%

Bruins Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

MUR By 8-14 points

27.2%

BEL By 1-7 points

10.7%

BEL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
91
MURRAY STATE
81
BELMONT
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
82
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 BEL @ MUR 87 - 70
Jan 31, 2026 MUR @ BEL 86 - 103
Mar 2, 2025 MUR @ BEL 60 - 70
Jan 25, 2025 BEL @ MUR 95 - 77
Feb 28, 2024 BEL @ MUR 83 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.0% more
Murray State: 4.3 vs Belmont: 3.3
Steals (L5) +16.6% more
Murray State: 6.6 vs Belmont: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5) +12.3%
Murray State: 81.0% vs Belmont: 68.7%
Assists (L5) +59.9% more
Belmont: 16.8 vs Murray State: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 91.0 86
BEL Score 81.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 26.2 50.0 / 26.0
Assists 16.8 / 10.5 25.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 42.8 56.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 81.0 68.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 35.5 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.6 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 9.6 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BEL Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
MUR
BEL
MUR
ML
47% 15-17
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
ATS
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
TTL
44% 14-18
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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