Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Chippewas BGSU @ CMU

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

13-8  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 7:00 PM ET
McGuirk Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CHIPPEWASCMU

6-15  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
CHIPPEWAS
0%
FALCONS --
CHIPPEWAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Central Michigan)
FalconsBGSU (-3.5) 0 ChippewasCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

18.4%

Chippewas Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CMU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

BGSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

BGSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

CMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

CMU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
63
BOWLING GREEN
72
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
BOWLING GREEN
72
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chippewas Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chippewas Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chippewas (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Chippewas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 BGSU @ CMU 59 - 62
Feb 1, 2025 BGSU @ CMU 71 - 90
Mar 14, 2024 BGSU @ CMU 66 - 56
Feb 20, 2024 BGSU @ CMU 60 - 62
Feb 3, 2024 CMU @ BGSU 77 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.6% more
Central Michigan: 16.4 vs Bowling Green: 14.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Central Michigan: 69.0% vs Bowling Green: 67.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Bowling Green: 49.6% vs Central Michigan: 46.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 63.0 59
CMU Score 72.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 36.6 19.0 / 25.0
Assists 16.4 / 14.0 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.0 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 49.6 43.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 67.1 47.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 34.7 45.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.6 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.4 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
CMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
CMU Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
BGSU
CMU
BGSU
ML
57% 17-13
66% 21-11
70% 21-9
56% 18-14
ATS
67% 20-10
72% 23-9
70% 21-9
56% 18-14
TTL
67% 20-10
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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