Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Rockets DAL @ HOU

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

19-29  |  Road

107
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 8:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

29-17  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
MAVERICKS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Rockets Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
122
DALLAS
121
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
110
DALLAS
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.0 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u223.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 DAL @ HOU 107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026 HOU @ DAL 104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025 HOU @ DAL 109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025 DAL @ HOU 102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025 DAL @ HOU 96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Dallas: 77.1% vs Houston: 70.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Dallas: 46.7% vs Houston: 43.5%
Blocks (L5) +54.2% more
Houston: 8.7 vs Dallas: 5.7
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
Houston: 9.6 vs Dallas: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 122.0 107
HOU Score 121.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 31.5 38.0 / 43.0
Assists 24.4 / 24.9 33.0 / 19.0
Blocks 8.7 / 5.7 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.7 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 77.1 73.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 51.8 / 48.6 53.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.6 / 7.5 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.4 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DAL
HOU
DAL
ML
61% 69-44
62% 63-39
59% 51-35
54% 44-37
ATS
62% 70-43
67% 68-34
59% 51-35
54% 44-37
TTL
51% 58-55
59% 60-41-1
100% 86-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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