Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seawolves @ Phoenix STBK @ ELON

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

13-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Schar Center
View Odds Details →

ELON

PHOENIXELON

13-9  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
📊
PHOENIX
0%
SEAWOLVES --
PHOENIX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Elon)
SeawolvesSTBK (-3.5) 0 PhoenixELON (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seawolves Cover

1.1%

Phoenix Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ELON -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

STBK By 1-7 points

0.8%

STBK By 8-14 points

0.1%

ELON By 1-7 points

4.8%

ELON By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
53
STONY BROOK
76
ELON
Simulated Score
70
STONY BROOK
75
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phoenix Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phoenix Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phoenix (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Phoenix (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 STBK @ ELON 72 - 68
Mar 1, 2025 ELON @ STBK 66 - 71
Feb 8, 2024 STBK @ ELON 79 - 64
Feb 2, 2023 ELON @ STBK 69 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.6% more
Elon: 7.1 vs Stony Brook: 5.1
Blocks (L5) +33.4% more
Stony Brook: 4.0 vs Elon: 2.6
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Stony Brook: 17.3 vs Elon: 14.3
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Stony Brook: 36.7 vs Elon: 32.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 53.0 72
ELON Score 76.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 43.2 33.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.3 / 17.3 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 49.0 40.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 74.0 72.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 36.7 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.6 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
STBK
ELON
STBK
ML
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
ATS
55% 17-14
61% 19-12
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
TTL
52% 16-15
65% 20-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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