MISSISSIPPI STATE
BULLDOGSMSST
11-10 | Road
79
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
14-7 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
TIGERS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Missouri)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)
MSST By 1-7 points
2.2%
MSST By 8-14 points
0.4%
MIZ By 1-7 points
9.3%
MIZ By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi State
65
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Missouri
84
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Mississippi State
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Missouri
72
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
MIZ @ MSST
88 - 64
Jan 31, 2026
MSST @ MIZ
79 - 84
Mar 13, 2025
MSST @ MIZ
73 - 85
Feb 1, 2025
MIZ @ MSST
88 - 61
Feb 10, 2024
MSST @ MIZ
75 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+10.9% more
Missouri: 4.9
vs
Mississippi State: 4.4
Blocks (L5)
+24.1% more
Mississippi State: 4.0
vs
Missouri: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+9.2% more
Mississippi State: 13.7
vs
Missouri: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
Mississippi State: 67.8%
vs
Missouri: 62.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSST Score
65.0
79
MIZ Score
84.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.6 / 31.1
35.0 / 39.0
Assists
11.5 / 11.3
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 43.1
43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
62.0 / 67.8
76.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 40.2
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.9 / 4.4
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.7
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
MIZ
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
MIZ
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.1
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
MSST
MIZ
MSST
ML
61%
20-13
66%
21-11
69%
22-10
55%
17-14
ATS
70%
23-10
56%
18-14
69%
22-10
55%
17-14
TTL
79%
26-7
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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