UNC GREENSBORO
SPARTANSUNCG
8-14 | Road
66
THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
7-15 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
SPARTANS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCG -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)
UNCG By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCG By 8-14 points
0.1%
CIT By 1-7 points
0.0%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Greensboro
86
UNC GREENSBORO
The Citadel
39
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
UNC Greensboro
75
UNC GREENSBORO
The Citadel
65
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim
Spartans (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UNCG @ CIT
66 - 71
Jan 15, 2026
CIT @ UNCG
66 - 69
Feb 5, 2025
UNCG @ CIT
76 - 61
Jan 15, 2025
CIT @ UNCG
57 - 70
Feb 14, 2024
UNCG @ CIT
76 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.7%
UNC Greensboro: 70.3%
vs
The Citadel: 59.6%
Blocks (L5)
+41.5% more
The Citadel: 2.3
vs
UNC Greensboro: 1.6
Turnovers (L5)
+22.5% more
The Citadel: 10.6
vs
UNC Greensboro: 8.6
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
The Citadel: 16.4
vs
UNC Greensboro: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score
86.0
66
CIT Score
39.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 33.0
29.0 / 21.0
Assists
16.4 / 13.7
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 43.2
39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
59.6 / 70.3
65.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 35.5
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.1
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 8.6
6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3%
Total +/-: +7.9
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
UNCG
CIT
UNCG
ML
59%
19-13
38%
13-21
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
ATS
62%
20-12
44%
15-19
64%
21-12
71%
24-10
TTL
53%
17-15
76%
26-8
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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