CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
15-6 | Road
86
MIAMI
HURRICANESMIA
17-4 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
HURRICANES
100%
GOLDEN BEARS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CAL By 1-7 points
26.8%
CAL By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
California
67
CALIFORNIA
Miami
65
MIAMI
Simulated Score
California
79
CALIFORNIA
Miami
72
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hurricanes (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Golden Bears (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CAL @ MIA
86 - 85
Jan 25, 2025
MIA @ CAL
94 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
California: 77.4%
vs
Miami: 71.3%
Blocks (L5)
+74.6% more
Miami: 3.7
vs
California: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+52.4% more
Miami: 7.1
vs
California: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+44.6% more
Miami: 15.5
vs
California: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAL Score
67.0
86
MIA Score
65.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 36.8
33.0 / 43.0
Assists
15.5 / 10.7
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 39.7
57.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 77.4
70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 36.9
32.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.1 / 4.6
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.7
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
Advantage
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
Advantage
18-15-1
(54.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CAL
MIA
CAL
ML
63%
22-13
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
77%
24-7
ATS
63%
22-13
64%
21-12
64%
21-12
78%
25-7
TTL
63%
22-13
70%
23-10
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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