NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
6-13 | Road
68
STETSON
HATTERSSTET
8-14 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
HATTERS
100%
LIONS
--
HATTERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (North Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
UNA By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNA By 8-14 points
24.3%
STET By 1-7 points
4.0%
STET By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
North Alabama
85
NORTH ALABAMA
Stetson
69
STETSON
Simulated Score
North Alabama
70
NORTH ALABAMA
Stetson
78
STETSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hatters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Hatters (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UNA @ STET
68 - 66
Jan 1, 2026
STET @ UNA
70 - 67
Jan 11, 2025
UNA @ STET
92 - 64
Feb 1, 2024
STET @ UNA
72 - 79
Feb 2, 2023
UNA @ STET
57 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.9% more
North Alabama: 4.2
vs
Stetson: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+20.1% more
North Alabama: 7.2
vs
Stetson: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+99.5% more
Stetson: 17.4
vs
North Alabama: 8.7
Rebounding (L5)
+22.1% more
Stetson: 36.1
vs
North Alabama: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNA Score
85.0
68
STET Score
69.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 26.3
29.0 / 29.0
Assists
17.4 / 8.7
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 4.2
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 43.8
40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 71.2
88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 29.6
34.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.7 / 7.2
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.5
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
STET
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STET
UNA
STET
UNA
ML
55%
18-15
43%
13-17
73%
24-9
57%
16-12
ATS
64%
21-12
60%
18-12
73%
24-9
57%
16-12
TTL
61%
20-13
63%
19-11
100%
33-0
100%
28-0
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