Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Sycamores VAL @ INST

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

10-11  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 1:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

9-13  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
0%
📊
SYCAMORES
100%
BEACONS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Valparaiso)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

98.9%

Sycamores Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAL -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

VAL By 1-7 points

4.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

INST By 1-7 points

0.8%

INST By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
VALPARAISO
65
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
65
VALPARAISO
80
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beacons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beacons (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 INST @ VAL 62 - 63
Feb 15, 2026 INST @ VAL 75 - 76
Jan 31, 2026 VAL @ INST 76 - 72
Feb 5, 2025 VAL @ INST 62 - 80
Jan 8, 2025 INST @ VAL 95 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.3% more
Valparaiso: 6.6 vs Indiana State: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +12.1%
Valparaiso: 71.9% vs Indiana State: 59.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Valparaiso: 37.4% vs Indiana State: 32.8%
Assists (L5) +80.1% more
Indiana State: 19.7 vs Valparaiso: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 88.0 76
INST Score 65.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 37.4 24.0 / 21.0
Assists 19.7 / 10.9 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.6 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 43.1 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 59.9 / 71.9 57.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 32.9 33.0 / 44.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.6 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 9.8 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
VAL
INST
VAL
ML
66% 21-11
48% 16-17
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
ATS
62% 20-12
52% 17-16
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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