NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
16-4 | Road
91
GEORGIA TECH
YELLOW JACKETSGT
11-10 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
YELLOW JACKETS
100%
TAR HEELS
--
YELLOW JACKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GT +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)
UNC By 1-7 points
27.2%
UNC By 8-14 points
23.0%
GT By 1-7 points
18.6%
GT By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina
88
NORTH CAROLINA
Georgia Tech
83
GEORGIA TECH
Simulated Score
North Carolina
68
NORTH CAROLINA
Georgia Tech
80
GEORGIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tar Heels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yellow Jackets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yellow Jackets (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Yellow Jackets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o159.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UNC @ GT
91 - 75
Dec 7, 2024
GT @ UNC
65 - 68
Jan 30, 2024
UNC @ GT
73 - 74
Dec 10, 2022
GT @ UNC
59 - 75
Jan 15, 2022
GT @ UNC
65 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
North Carolina: 5.6
vs
Georgia Tech: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+19.3% more
North Carolina: 16.6
vs
Georgia Tech: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
North Carolina: 50.0%
vs
Georgia Tech: 43.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
North Carolina: 39.2%
vs
Georgia Tech: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNC Score
88.0
91
GT Score
83.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 39.2
54.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.6
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 50.0
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
68.8 / 66.6
82.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 34.9
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
3.8 / 5.6
1.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 8.0
12.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
GT
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
GT
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
GT
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
UNC
GT
UNC
ML
61%
19-12
76%
25-8
63%
19-11
69%
22-10
ATS
55%
17-14
73%
24-9
63%
19-11
69%
22-10
TTL
61%
19-12
55%
18-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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