INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
14-7 | Road
98
UCLA
BRUINSUCLA
15-6 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
BRUINS
100%
HOOSIERS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
IU By 1-7 points
3.3%
IU By 8-14 points
10.7%
UCLA By 1-7 points
0.5%
UCLA By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
77
INDIANA
UCLA
52
UCLA
Simulated Score
Indiana
68
INDIANA
UCLA
72
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
IU @ UCLA
98 - 97
Feb 14, 2025
UCLA @ IU
72 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.5% more
Indiana: 8.6
vs
UCLA: 7.6
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Indiana: 14.6
vs
UCLA: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Indiana: 81.9%
vs
UCLA: 74.3%
Blocks (L5)
+33.2% more
UCLA: 3.7
vs
Indiana: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
77.0
98
UCLA Score
52.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 35.6
32.0 / 32.0
Assists
13.1 / 14.6
19.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 45.1
39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 81.9
88.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 30.6
46.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.2 / 5.5
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
7.6 / 8.6
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
UCLA
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
UCLA
Advantage
17-18-1
(48.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
IU
UCLA
IU
ML
67%
24-12
66%
21-11
76%
25-8
71%
22-9
ATS
61%
22-14
53%
17-15
76%
25-8
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
22-14
56%
18-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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