CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
10-12 | Road
69
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
14-7 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
TITANS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Cal State Fullerton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUF -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)
CSUF By 1-7 points
1.4%
CSUF By 8-14 points
5.8%
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.1%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Fullerton
80
CAL STATE FULLERTON
UC Santa Barbara
51
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
Cal State Fullerton
68
CAL STATE FULLERTON
UC Santa Barbara
72
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Titans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Titans (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
CSUF @ UCSB
69 - 83
Jan 1, 2026
UCSB @ CSUF
84 - 95
Feb 20, 2025
CSUF @ UCSB
56 - 86
Jan 25, 2025
UCSB @ CSUF
83 - 75
Mar 2, 2024
UCSB @ CSUF
70 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.0% more
Cal State Fullerton: 3.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
Cal State Fullerton: 9.7
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 6.9
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Cal State Fullerton: 12.2
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 10.8
Assists (L5)
+8.4% more
Cal State Fullerton: 17.1
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUF Score
80.0
69
UCSB Score
51.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.3 / 30.9
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
15.6 / 17.1
21.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 45.9
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 74.5
82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 32.4
40.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.9 / 9.7
13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.2
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUF
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
CSUF
UCSB
CSUF
ML
59%
19-13
68%
23-11
72%
23-9
76%
26-8
ATS
62%
20-12
68%
23-11
72%
23-9
76%
26-8
TTL
47%
15-17
59%
20-14
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
